2024 NFL draft Best worst first-round picks trades QBs

Star Pirates prospect Skenes gives up 1st pro HR

What an opening night of the 2024 NFL draft. We saw three wild records for the common draft era, with six quarterbacks in the top 12, zero defensive players until the Colts took edge rusher Laiatu Latu at No. 15 and 23 offensive players in total in Round 1. Seven receivers tied the 2004 record, and eight offensive tackles tied the 2008 record. And we somehow didn't see a defensive back until Quinyon Mitchell went to the Eagles at No. 22. Five teams also made a trade up the board for a player, including the Vikings moving up just one spot to land quarterback J.J. McCarthy. So ... a pretty action-packed evening in Detroit.

With all 32 first-round picks behind us, let's debate the best and worst of an exciting opening night. NFL draft analysts Matt Miller, Jordan Reid and Field Yates answered 12 of the biggest lingering questions, including which picks were great value, questionable reaches and perfect solutions to huge needs. Which trades stood out? Which QBs landed with ideal teams? What are our biggest mock draft regrets? And which playmakers are locks for huge rookie seasons?

We also took a quick look ahead to Day 2, as the second round will get underway Friday at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN App). But first, here's our snap reaction to Day 1.

Jump to: Best pick | Head-scratchers | QB fits and predictions Surprises | Top trades | Best move to fill a need Mock draft regrets | Improved contenders | Day 2 lookahead

What's more shocking: six quarterbacks in the top 12 or no defensive prospects until No. 15?

Miller: I'm going to say the six quarterbacks going in the top 12. I like this quarterback class but have just three signal-callers in my top 10 -- Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. J.J. McCarthy ranked No. 19 for me, and Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. come in at No. 39 and No. 40, respectively. Look, teams always reach for quarterbacks. But we saw some serious reaches in the top 12 picks this year based on needs.

Reid: No defensive players drafted until No. 15 overall is definitely something that I didn't foresee happening. With teams like the Falcons and Bears needing help on that side of the ball, I thought the first defensive player could come off the board before we got out of the top 10. Big time surprise.

Yates: I'm also going with the defensive player shutout in the top 14. There is plenty of history of quarterbacks rising up draft boards given the positional value and the reality of the supply and demand, but this lack of defense exceeded my expectations. And the teams that wound up with the top defensive players -- led by the Colts picking edge rusher Laiatu Latu and the Seahawks landing defensive tackle Byron Murphy II -- got great values through their patience.

Who was the best pick of the night?

Miller: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas to the Chiefs at No. 28. What has the Chiefs' offense been missing since trading away Tyreek Hill? A legit deep threat with high-end speed. Well, they'll have the fastest player in combine history -- Worthy ran a 4.21-second 40-yard dash -- running go routes for Patrick Mahomes now. Worthy is a speed demon, but he's also a complete route runner. And he had great production early in his career as a punt returner. He's not as big or physical at the catch point as Hill -- he's only 165 pounds -- but the deep ball is back in Kansas City.

Reid: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State to the Cardinals at No. 4. Arizona was in desperate need of a WR1, and Harrison will be the go-to option for quarterback Kyler Murray. With elite hand-eye coordination, body control and hands, he's the perfect type of playmaker for a team lacking in that department. His 28 receiving touchdowns over the past two seasons were the most in the FBS.

Yates: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington to the Bears at No. 9. Landing Odunze here is a grand slam for the Bears when considering the impact he can have on quarterback Caleb Williams -- whom Chicago took at No. 1 -- and the value of the selection relative to my board. I had Odunze rated sixth overall, and there was a case for him to be even higher. His 24 contested catches last season tied for the FBS lead, and Williams will build an immediate trust in throwing it his way regardless of whether he's truly open.

What was the most confusing pick of Round 1?

Miller: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington to the Falcons at No. 8. Umm ... what? The Falcons just paid Kirk Cousins $180 million over four years. Yes, Cousins is 35 years old, but the Falcons had an opportunity to draft an elite defensive prospect or even potentially trade out of this pick. Instead, they drafted a 24-year-old rookie quarterback to be the backup to Cousins? I don't get it at all. This was a wasted opportunity for Atlanta to build a roster around Cousins.

Reid: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia to the Raiders at No. 13. After drafting Michael Mayer in the second round last year, tight end was far from a dire need for Las Vegas. This ultimately seems like a "best available player" approach, but with every defensive prospect still on the board when the Raiders were on the clock, selecting a cornerback seemed to make way more sense for a team that has multiple holes in the secondary.

Yates: Penix to the Falcons. This has nothing to do with Penix as a player, as he felt like an inevitability to go in the first round to some team. But after making that massive investment to Cousins with $100 million in guaranteed money, Atlanta had satisfied its quarterback need and could have used that pick to reinforce the pass rush or add depth to the secondary.

What is your favorite QB landing spot?

Miller: Caleb Williams to the Bears at No. 1. Is this cheating to answer with the top pick? I just love the infrastructure that the Bears have in place for him. Starting with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and his love of the deep ball, and including the awesome playmakers at wide receiver, tight end and running back, this is such a great situation for a young quarterback. The Bears will be must-see TV on Sundays with Williams and Odunze added to the mix.

Reid: J.J. McCarthy to the Vikings at No. 10. I think McCarthy really needed to go to a team that could slow-play his development, and in that sense, he couldn't have landed in a better spot. With Sam Darnold able to start next season, Minnesota will be able to stay patient with its QB of the future. And the Vikings already have a full arsenal of playmakers to help McCarthy develop once he's ready to take over as the full-time starter.

Yates: Williams to the Bears. Rather than picking someone different for the sake of being unique, I'll agree with Matt. Williams was my wire-to-wire No. 1 player in the draft, so regardless of the situation, I was going to have confidence in the outlook. But when you factor in what was already in place -- a dynamic wide receiver duo, solid 1-2 tight end pairing, two promising young tackles, a beefed-up backfield and a well-respected new offensive staff -- plus the addition of Odunze, it's not hyperbole to say this may be the best situation for a No. 1 pick in a long time.

What is your best prediction about one of these QBs and/or his team fit?

Miller: Williams will win Offensive Rookie of the Year. OK, maybe predicting the first overall pick to win OROY isn't a bold prediction, but it's one I believe in. Williams is truly going to an excellent fit and situation, and he joins Jayden Daniels (Commanders at No. 2) as the only clear-cut Week 1 starters in the class. He'll have plenty of opportunities in the suddenly high-octane NFC North to score, too.

Reid: Bo Nix will be the Week 1 starter in Denver. We've all heard about how Nix's skill set -- accuracy and strong decision-making -- could translate well to Sean Payton's offense, and Nix's savviness under center will likely lead him to early snaps. Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham are the Broncos' only options outside of Nix, so there's a clear path for him to become the team's immediate starter.

Yates: McCarthy will become an instant starter in Minnesota, and the Vikings will finish with a winning record. Williams might be the rookie quarterback in the best situation, but McCarthy is also in a very good spot. With arguably the best receiver in the league to throw to in Justin Jefferson and a collection of very good skill players beyond that, McCarthy should post big-time numbers right away. And he'll be well-protected with a standout tackle duo.

What was the biggest surprise of the night?

Miller: The lack of defensive players (just nine) is a huge surprise, even if we knew this was an offense-heavy class. With salaries exploding for cornerbacks, defensive ends and defensive tackles, my expectation was the league would prioritize young and inexpensive front-line defenders. Instead we saw just one defensive tackle and three cornerbacks drafted in the first 32 picks. In a night full of surprises, the lack of representation by the defense is a big takeaway.

Reid: How about Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold falling to No. 24? He was my 11th-ranked player. I was really surprised to see teams like the Raiders and Colts pass on him. With his versatility in being able to play inside or outside, he will provide instant value for the Lions, who needed another starting corner. I liked them being aggressive in trading up ahead of the Packers to secure this talented prospect.

Yates: We've covered it a little, but I'd have a hard time saying anything other than Penix going eighth overall to Atlanta. To reiterate, this is not about Penix as a player. It's the fact that the Falcons just paid massive money to Cousins, and Penix -- who will turn 24 on May 8 -- could well be a backup for two seasons. With significant needs on the other side of the ball, I had Atlanta pegged as a surefire defensive team in Round 1.

What was the best trade up, down or for a player during Round 1?

Miller: The Vikings trading up to No. 17 from No. 23 for Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner. The Vikings made two trades up the board in the first round, but I like the second move the most. Turner was my No. 7 overall player in the class, and Minnesota landed him at No. 17 overall before the run on defensive ends happened. It was a timely and savvy trade up to get ahead of the Rams (No. 19), plus a real steal on value.

Reid: Agreed on the Vikings moving up to No. 17 for Turner. GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah was aggressive with adding two players at spots of need on Thursday. The Vikings desperately needed to come out of this draft with a QB of the future, and they did that with McCarthy. But the more surprising move came when the team traded up to get Turner, landing my top-ranked defensive player in the class. Minnesota arguably had the best first round of an team.

Yates: The Chiefs trading up to No. 28 from No. 32 for Worthy. My consistent evaluation of Worthy during the pre-draft process is that he would be an ideal fit for a team that won't press him into WR1 duties out of the gates. And he won't be in Kansas City, with Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown in town. Worthy adds a dynamic element to a Chiefs team that up until the playoffs really struggled to generate explosive plays. He and Brown inject this roster with world-class speed.

Which team best addressed a glaring need -- or needs?

Miller: Last season, we saw the way an older depth chart and a lack of speed at cornerback really hurt the Eagles' defense. Enter Toledo's Quinyon Mitchell, who brings 4.33 speed and the best ball skills of any cornerback in the class. My No. 15 prospect in the class, Mitchell checked off one of the biggest and most obvious needs in the entire draft.

Reid: With Ryan Ramczyk's health questions (knee) and Trevor Penning's development not panning out, the Saints potentially landed a fix at right tackle in Fuaga. His demeanor and physical nature will immediately change the attitude of the offensive line unit.

Yates: Even if the Cardinals made just one pick on Thursday with Harrison, it would be enough to be the answer to this question. The Cardinals had a gaping hole at wideout, and Harrison is the best player at the position in a potentially historic draft class. Harrison should be a near-every-snap player for Arizona immediately and Murray's favorite target. On top of that, the Cardinals landed one of my favorite players in the class in Missouri's Darius Robinson to shore up the defensive line.

What is your biggest regret from your final mock draft after seeing Round 1 play out?

Miller: In a conversation with our own Jeremy Fowler earlier this week, he suggested there was buzz that the Falcons liked Penix, but I brushed it off as a smokescreen. Jeremy was right! Sometimes it's the intel we hear and don't buy that becomes the hindsight pick you wish you'd used. Hat tip to Fowler for this one.

Reid: Having the Titans go receiver. I mocked Odunze to Tennessee despite Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins being there, thinking the team might be tempted by the Washington receiver's talent. But protecting a young QB in Will Levis is crucial, and the Titans desperately needed help on the offensive line. Alabama offensive tackle JC Latham will bring a tone-setting presence to either tackle spot.

Yates: Flipping Notre Dame's Joe Alt and Latham at pick Nos. 5 and 7. As a general rule of thumb, it's probably good to not regret anything from a mock draft given how difficult forecasting this event can be, but if pressed to pick one, this is it. Alt was my top-rated offensive lineman in the class, and while he played left tackle in college, he can absolutely slide to the right side of the line to play opposite of Rashawn Slater with the Chargers.

Which contender helped itself the most?

Miller: Detroit Lions. I love the trade up to get my No. 1 cornerback and No. 8 overall player in Arnold. Playing in a division with Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and the great receiver room in Green Bay, the Lions had to get a marquee corner. Arnold fits the bill. Now he's teamed up with former teammate Brian Branch and recently added Carlton Davis III, and the Lions suddenly have a dang good young secondary.

Reid: Green Bay Packers. After releasing David Bakhtiari this offseason, there was a need for depth at offensive tackle. Viewed by some scouts as a guard, Arizona's Jordan Morgan brings versatility and has the potential to be a plug-and-play option at left tackle. It was great to see Green Bay take its first offensive tackle in the first round since 2011.

Yates: Philadelphia Eagles. Mitchell was my top-rated cornerback in the class after 32 total pass breakups over the past two seasons. He aced the pre-draft process with a great week at the Senior Bowl and a blazing-fast 4.33-second run in the 40 at the combine. Philadelphia had a desperate need for speed at cornerback in the draft and landed Mitchell without having to move anywhere in the order.

Who are you most shocked to see still on the board heading into Day 2?

Miller: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas. The concerns over Mitchell's effort and motor at times likely contributed to his fall on draft night, but he was my No. 19 overall player and ranked well ahead of Florida's Ricky Pearsall and South Carolina's Xavier Legette. That's no disrespect to the two very good receivers who closed out the first round, but Mitchell should come off the board early on Day 2.

Reid: Jer'Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois. After having surgery in January for a Jones fracture, Newton wasn't able to return to the field until an April private workout for scouts and evaluators. He is the second-best interior defender in this class behind Texas' Byron Murphy II and my No. 25 overall player. So Newton likely won't have to wait long to hear his name called on Day 2.

Yates: Cooper DeJean, CB/S, Iowa. This might be a byproduct of the fact that DeJean was not healthy for much of the pre-draft process after suffering a broken leg late during the college football season, but I did believe he would find his way into the first round. DeJean provides man-to-man coverage skills and positional versatility if the team that takes him also has a need at safety.

Make one prediction for Day 2.

Miller: Defensive players are going to fly off the board in Round 2. Star defenders like DeJean (Iowa), Newton (Illinois), Edgerrin Cooper (Texas A&M), Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (Missouri) and Junior Colson (Michigan) are sitting atop my best available and are ripe for the picking to start the second night of the draft.

Reid: I actually think the dominant run of offensive players being taken over defensive players will continue into Day 2. How's this: We will see 10 offensive players drafted before a defensive player is picked. Watch for more receivers and offensive linemen to be targeted early and often on Friday.

Yates: The first two picks of the day will be wide receivers. With the Bills and Patriots currently slotted at Nos. 33 and 34, respectively, players such as Mitchell (Texas), Keon Coleman (Florida State) and Ladd McConkey (Georgia) could be early targets. Both teams have a need at that position, though Buffalo has already traded down twice this draft, suggesting it is more than comfortable with the depth of this class. I'd suspect the Bills make a pick at the position to begin the run on Day 2.